klausboedker
on - last edited on by
ElizabethS
Since 2004 I have owned four DSLRs. That averages out to a 'life-cycle' of 15 months for my cameras. Far too short in terms of wearing down the camera's mechanical parts which I would put at roughly 10 times longer than I actually use them. And don't even get me started about the lenses. Unless the lens is truly stellar, I have this urge to sell it after a couple of months and buy something else just to test if it lives up to my (way too) high lens standards.
It seems to be an unquenchable thirst for newer, better camera gear. Sigh!
↓ Nikon F3 from 1980 -- hopelessly outdated by today's standards.
↑ Looking through the old Nikon F3 camera. Note the classic focussing matte.
So what does tomorrow's technology hold in store for us photographers to get excited about?
Sensor size
The APS-C sized sensor is not going anywhere right now. Even though full-frame cameras have seen an uptake thanks to the Canon 5D mk2, Nikon D700 and Sony A900, the sensor still remains the single most expensive item in a camera. Putting in a smaller sensor enables the manufacturers to produce $500 cameras, which again enables consumers to justify migrating from a point-and-shoot to a DSLR.
In the same wake we will continue to see more lenses produced for the APS-C sized sensor format. These lenses can be produced cheaper and in a smaller form factor due to the smaller sensor, again cutting cost for the manufacturer and consumer.
In the high-end, very-very expensive end of the scale we could see larger sensors than the 35mm format put into new DSLRs to simply squeeze even more image quality into a camera. Alternatively, camera manufacturers could start producing more modular DSLRs that simply allows you to upgrade the sensor instead of the whole camera. Pretty sweet!
The megapixel race is over
C'mon!, the megapixel race is over. Just admit it. 15-18 MP in a point-and-shoot and 24-30 MP in a DSLR is probably where the image quality curve starts to flatten and adding more pixels to the sensor yields no gain in image quality. This is not just due to the sensor itself, but also the physical limitation of lenses. Because of the amount of resolving power a 35mm format lens has relative to the 35mm sensor, at some point the sensor will outperform the lens in terms of resolution.
With today's 12-15 MP cameras the image quality peaks @ f11. An aperture above that will result in what's called lens diffraction lowering the image quality. So the camera itself may be capable of great image quality, but the lenses cannot keep up and deliver that. So, dear engineers and marketing folks @ Canon, Nikon, Sony, etc. please put your time towards something else. There are plenty of other cool features we would love to see in a camera.
ISO
One of them is lower noise at high ISO, especially in the smaller point-and-shoot cameras. With the advance of ISO 25,600 that enables you to shoot in a reasonable quality for web/small prints, I would put it as realistic that we would see the advent of ISO 51,200 and 102,400 ISO over the next couple of years. But then I am guessing we are starting to hit the upper limit of what's physically possible for today's 35mm format sensors.
2nd generation HD video
By now it's pretty well established that HD video (720p/1080p) is a standard feature on new DSLRs. So what more is needed? Well, I suspect we will see a refinement of the video capability in such a fashion that it will start to resemble top-of-the-line camcorders more and more. This could include the ability to auto-focus, and to set shutter speed, aperture and ISO before filming*). At a minimum they will probably put a dedicated classic, red record button on the camera. I mean, how hard can that be?
*) Note: Canon just released a firmware upgrade for their 5D mk2 allowing the user to manually control the ISO, shutter speed and aperture before starting video recording. Other video enabled cameras (Nikon D90/5000 and Canon T1i) do not have this featured enabled in the firmware yet.
↑ Photo credit: www.sonystyle.com. The new Sony HDR-CX520V (phew! that was quite the name) comes with 64 GB built-in memory, image stabilization, GPS and the ability to take 12 MP still shots. Now, why can't my DSLR do the same?
Other cool features
When manufacturers have the video capacity ironed out, what can we then expect to see? Well, currently there are rumors of WiFi and GPS being built-in. Personally, I can see both being incorporated, but the manufacturers would simultaneously have to figure out how to add more battery power to the cameras as both features devour a lot of juice.
At the same time I wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing flash drives incorporated in cameras within a couple of years. To me this makes a lot more sense than the addition of WiFi and GPS. A 32 GB built-in memory would be pretty cool, and you would have to take a lot of images/video to run out. Of course the memory card manufacturers would not be too happy about that.
Glass
With Canon being the last to follow suit, all the major lens manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Sony, Pentax, Olympus, Sigma and Tamron) now have produced a do-it-all zoom, typically a 18-200/250mm lens with built-in stabilization. These lenses enjoy a tremendous popularity, so with that out of the way, what's in store for us?
↑ A 29 years old 50mm lens (Nikkor 50mm f1.4 AiS) on the left, and a 1 year old 50mm lens (Nikkor 50mm f1.4 G AfS) on the right.
I see three parallel tracks. One, a continued improvement of stabilization (IS/VR/OS/VC) technologies allowing for even greater camera shake compensation. Two, an effort to shave off f-stops, i.e. improving the lens' light sensitivity with 'new' f-stops, such as f3.2, f3.5, and f4.5. Three, new focal lengths, such as 16-60mm f2.8, 20-120mm f4, and 120-450mm f4.5-5.6, expanding today's focal range while keeping the light properties (minimum aperture) the same.
I can't wait!
For the technically interested: Images in this post were taken with the Nikon D700 coupled with the Nikkor 105mm f2.8 VR Micro. The Nikon F3 depicted in the first image was debuted in 1980 and introduced an unprecedented degree of automation that immediately was shun off by photography 'purists'. Imagine if the same purists had seen today's modern DSLRs. What an outcry that would have been.
You must be a registered user to add a comment here. If you've already registered, please log in. If you haven't registered yet, please register and log in.